Comparing Microclimate Dynamics in Urban Areas with Distinct Morphological Changes Using AI-Based Predictions and Climate Scenarios

Paria Saadatjoo; kiomars Fathi majd

doi:10.38027/smart.v3n1-5

Authors

Paria Saadatjoo Assoc. Prof. in Department of Architecture, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5720-9097
kiomars Fathi majd Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2141-0989

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38027/smart.v3n1-5

Keywords:

Urban microclimate, Climate change, Morphological change, AI-based modelling Simulation

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and climate change are reshaping urban microclimates, yet existing assessments of future outdoor thermal comfort predominantly rely on annual or seasonal climate averages, overlooking extreme summer heat conditions — the periods of greatest risk to public health and outdoor livability. Moreover, studies projecting future thermal comfort typically hold urban morphology fixed, applying future climate scenarios to present-day city form, without accounting for how distinct growth mechanisms reshape building volume, height, and density over time. This study addresses both gaps by examining peak summer heat extremes in Tabriz through 2050, comparing two districts undergoing distinct growth mechanisms: Khavaran, developing through both new infill construction and building height increases, and Baghshomal, growing solely through vertical renovation of existing buildings. District-specific future morphology is simulated using AI-based prediction models calibrated to each district's observed growth pattern, and future climate scenarios are generated using the CCWorld WeatherGen tool; both are jointly input into ENVI-met to assess microclimatic conditions and outdoor thermal comfort under extreme summer heat. Results show that Baghshomal, despite its slower growth, is more vulnerable to extreme heat than Khavaran. Compared with 2025, maximum air temperature increased by 3.52°C in Baghshomal and 4.66°C in Khavaran, while maximum relative humidity decreased by 8.73% and 14.22%, respectively. This is driven by street-level morphology rather than growth rate: Khavaran's higher street height-to-width ratio and denser vegetation cover provide greater shading and lower solar exposure during peak heat hours, while Baghshomal's wider, lower-density streets remain more exposed. These findings indicate that the mechanism and morphological configuration of urban growth, not only its rate, shape future thermal resilience, offering a growth-mechanism-sensitive framework for evaluating extreme-heat vulnerability in Tabriz's rapidly transforming districts, with potential relevance to similar semi-arid cities after local calibration.

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